NFL Preview Week 14
Top Plays
Derrick Henry- Last week the Titans were bullied early and Henry was forced out of the game plan. We all know King Henry becomes a different animal come late November and December and a matchup as heavy favorites against the Jaguars is CERTAINLY a get right spot for this Titans team and Henry. Jacksonville has the 30th ranked run defense in football.
Aaron Jones- - In week 2 Jones piled up 168 yards on the ground with 2 touchdowns, and another 4 catches for 68 and ANOTHER touchdown. Now, just because he scored almost 50 DK points against this team earlier in the year does not mean it will happen again, but it’s definitely hard to ignore those stats. The Packers know that a heavy dose of Jones can get them these results and I’m all ver it. I haven’t heard a lot of buzz around Jones this week. In fact, I’m seeing a lot of people going cheap at the RB position this week. This makes me love paying up for both of my running backs this week where I see these matchups.
I want to mention a few things before we dive into positions. Football isn’t as big on stacking as it is in baseball, but it’s still a very good idea to use correlations in your builds. Very rarely do I not pair my QB with one of his Wide Receivers. If Drew Brees is going to throw 5 touchdowns tomorrow then it’s almost pointless to have him without Michael Thomas who will likely catch some of them, right? Same goes with running backs and team defenses. They correlate well because Nick Chubb could see extra carries with a lead. When that happens it keeps the Browns offense on the field and the opposing offense off of it. At the same time it forces the other teams offense to become one dimensional and throw the ball every play. This opens up opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions which gives your defense points. Always think of matchups, but never forget game scripts and the correlations that will likely occur because of those matchups.
Favorite stacks-
Falcons/ Chargers
Titans/ Jaguars
Chiefs/ Dolphins
QB- This is often the hardest position to get right but I take a different approach here. Most people tend to look at this position first because it’s at the top of the roster, I do the opposite. I find the receivers I’m in love with and I see what I can fit at this position. I basically take the same approach as season long leagues where I refuse to draft a QB early. In my season long league I’ve went back to back years drafting Patrick Mahomes, then Lamar Jackson, both with my very last pick of the draft. I honestly carry this approach with correlation to my receivers in mind when I build lineups in daily fantasy.
This position today is a little wide open. None of them really stick out that much to me. I’ll just list my favorites in order.
Russell Wilson
Mitch Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Taysom Hill
Daniel Jones
RB-
Derrick Henry- See above
Aaron Jones- See above
Chris Carson- The Jets are an obvious team to pick on. You’re crazy if you don’t have some exposure so why not start with the running game? Carson splits snaps but when he’s in the game he maximizes his usage at one of the highest rates in the league. If you like the passing attack then you’re not going here, but I think most people attack the passing game and this could be the way to get different.
Austin Ekeler- Atlanta is a target for me every single week. This is one of the best game environments for offense this week so Ekeler kinda gets a free pass into the article.
J.D. McKissic- My boy made me some money last Monday after a 10 catch performance. Antonio Gibson is out this week after leaving last weeks game with a toe injury. McKissic is just $4,900 on DK and the PPR format makes it hard to believe he misses value. 10 catches is hard to project for anyone but being a running back makes it much more easy to project. I’d say he’s a lock for 8+ targets in this game and more than his usual amount of carries. If he gets a touchdown there’s no way he doesn’t pay off. The best thing is that he can pay off without a touchdown just like last week, EVEN THOUGH he only averaged 7 yards per catch. There’s much more upside here than most people on this slate.
WR- Like season long leagues, wide receiver is just deeper with opportunity than any other position so I typically don’t spend up like crazy here. At the same time, some matchups just can’t be ignored.
Keenan Allen- This kinda has to be your free square of the day. He’s going up against the Atlanta Falcons and their still atrocious secondary. This will be MEGA chalk so I’m desperately trying to find a way to not play him but it’s really not easy. Allen has 10 plus targets in 6 of his last 7, one of them he had 19 targets and obviously this matchup is great. He’s Herberts first and second option in this offense which was shutout last week by the Patriots.
Seattle Receivers- DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have a date with the Jets. I always tend to lean for Metcalf because of his physical abilities after the catch, but I think I’m giving the slight lean to Lockett this week thanks to his price tag and my projections showing similar output from both of these guys. Either way, you can’t go wrong with this Seattle offense after an embarrassing loss to the Giants last week. The poor Jets might get throttled.
Tyreke Hill- Nobody has more fantasy production in the last 5 weeks than the cheetah. He’s seen 11 or more targets in his last 4 games and that’s production we just can’t ignore when we consider the speed and after catch ability that Hill brings. I also like that this Miami defense has given teams fits as of late. I don’t think it makes this super contrarian, but knowing Kelce will be popular as always, and that some people might fear Miami’s defense a little more than most teams, could leave people saving salary here when considering Tyreke.
Darius Slayton- His production was not good with Colt McCoy but nobody’s was. If Daniel Jones is back under center then Slayton is my cheap play at WR this week.
TE- Such an important position each week since you only get one. You have to hit here, so I typically do spend up for my Kittle, Ertz, Kelce type tight ends on most of these slates.
Travis Kelce- Do I need to write anything here? He’s so far above any other tight end that he’s almost a must play every week unless we find great value elsewhere.
Cole Kmet- Kmet tied Allen Robinson for the lead in targets for the Bears last week with 7. This is significant since Kmet had never seen more than 3 targets in a game prior. He’s a risk but last week should give you a little confidence in rostering a $2,900 player. Houston’s defense is also BAD.
Team Defense- I hate this position, it’s honestly a crap shoot for who’s going to return a punt for a touchdown or create a pick 6. I’ll give you my favorites without much to say here but I’m a firm believer in choosing my defense last and hoping I have enough money to get a good one rather than a shot in the dark... at the same time I’ll gladly take a shot in the dark before I sacrifice a good player.
Philadelphia Eagles- $2,200
Seahawks- $3,000
Tennessee Titans- $3,100