By: Ethan Tabor

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Notes

Welcome to our first NFL article! Hopefully you’ve been following along since sports made their return as I’ve turned over $100,000 in winnings from NBA and MLB contests thus far. Last year in football I was able to turn a major profit and even finish top 5 in the milli maker contest on draftkings. This years goal is obviously to take one down, but for now let’s just focus on keeping all of us on the right side of the money line. 

Top Plays

Let’s start with the obvious. Breaking down this slate I see myself plugging in 2 specific players before I really start my build at all. They are Michael Thomas, against the Buccaneers and Boston Scott, who will see increased opportunity with Miles Sanders not making the trip to Washington. These guys will be owned across the board, but to me they are free squares which means we just have to hit on 7 players now rather than 9. 

I want to mention a few things before we dive into positions. Football isn’t as big on stacking as it is in baseball, but it’s still a very good idea to use correlations in your builds. Very rarely do I not pair my QB with one of his Wide Receivers. If Drew Brees is going to throw 5 touchdowns tomorrow then it’s almost pointless to have him without Michael Thomas who will likely catch 3 of them, right? Same goes with running backs and team defenses. They correlate well because Nick Chubb could see extra carries with a lead. When that happens it keeps the Browns offense on the field and the opposing offense off of it. At the same time it forces the other teams offense to become one dimensional and throw the ball every play. This opens up opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions which gives your defense points. Always think of matchups, but never forget game scripts and the correlations that will likely occur because of those matchups. 

QB- This is often the hardest position to get right but I take a different approach here. Most people tend to look at this position first because it’s at the top of the roster, I do the opposite. I find the receivers I’m in love with and I see what I can fit at this position. I basically take the same approach as season long leagues where I refuse to draft a QB early. In my season long league I’ve went back to back years drafting Patrick Mahomes, then Lamar Jackson, both with my very last pick of the draft. I honestly carry this approach with correlation to my receivers in mind when I build lineups in daily fantasy.

Drew Brees- He has to be my favorite here but it’s also going to be popular. I expect this Tampa/New Orleans game to garner major ownership and rightfully so with the largest point total on this slate. This Saints team can score in so many ways but pairing Brees with Michael Thomas is just way too sexy against this Tampa Bay secondary that is still among the worst in all of football. I do like some other options but they garner much more of a high risk, high reward feel. 

Joe Burrow- This Chargers secondary is only ok without Derwin James on the field and the Bengals somehow have a healthy offense. Like literally, every player is off the injured list for week 1. We have watched Andy Dalton for years put up big numbers around some of these guys and Burrow could do the same as an under dog in this matchup. We have no clue what to expect from the rookie 1st overall pick, but his price is right and the opportunity is certainly there. 

Lamar Jackson- I really like the idea of getting a little different here and paying up. I expect a lot of people to pay up for McCaffrey and Michael Thomas which means Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson at the QB position could be left un-owned. Wilson has the better matchup, but Lamar Jackson is Lamar Jackson and could score 40 fantasy points on any given day and outscore the field by 10+ points. You’ll be thin starting your build with Lamar, C-Mac, and Thomas but I still like it if you fill around them well. I do have to note, Lamar failed to reach 30 fantasy points in both games against Cleveland last year, maybe they have him somewhat figured out? As figured out as he can get... Or maybe not. 

RB- I have a top 3 here and I’m sticking to those 3 only. I do think Boston Scott is a lock for value but at the same time it’s a great way to get different if you feel like fading it. I don’t suggest it but I do support it, if that makes any sense. Aside from Boston Scott, I’ve got:

Christian McCaffrey- obvious play, but I think you need it in week 1. The panthers are slight under dogs but I still see plenty of rushing and pass catching opportunity in this one. Teddy Bridgewater is seriously 3x better than anyone under center for this team last year so if anything (and I know this is crazy to say) C-Mac is likely to have an even more productive season in 2020 because he actually has a QB. I don’t see how you can go wrong with the best fantasy back of 2019, in a good matchup as well. Fire him up.

Austin Ekeler- Reports from camp are saying Ekeler is the real deal and he definitely showcased it in his opportunity last year. Now he’s the the lead back in LA and no doubt a vocal point in this offense now ran by QB Tyrod Taylor. The Chargers are still favored on the road in Joe Burrows debut and I see a very favorable game script for Ekeler. You have to love the receiving upside he brings as well with these formats being .5 PPR on fanduel and full point on DK. 

I can get down with Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon as well but I’m sticking with the 3 I’ve mentioned and not thinking twice here. 

WR- Like season long leagues, wide receiver is just deeper with opportunity than any other position so I typically don’t spend up like crazy here. At the same time, some matchups just can’t be ignored, like Michael Thomas against Tampa Bay. 

Adam Thielen- I already mentioned Michael Thomas as the top option at receiver so let’s move on. I’m hoping Thielen slides under the radar at this price although it’s unlikely. With no more Diggs in Minnesota he’s likely to see a ridiculous amount of targets from Kirk Cousins. I know this team likes to run the rock but I still expect 30 pass attempts in this game and seeing 10+ go Thielens way is very likely. 

Allen Robinson- This is definitely someone that will go overlooked and I love that. I don’t love Mitch Trubisky as his QB, but I do love picking on the Lions secondary with no more Darius Slay. I also love that Robinson went under the radar with the 3rd most targets of any receiver last year. He’s in a good matchup with a TON of upside here, and an injured starting running back, so I’m looking at him as my sleeper of this slate at 5% or less ownership. 

Allen Lazard- Minnesota has a bad secondary and the loss of defensive end, Daniele Hunter, makes the Green Bay passing attack even more appealing. I expect Devante Adams to get ownership in this matchup as well, but Lazard is solidified as the second receiver for Aaron Rodgers and I love this price on him. They Packers are underdogs here so I’m all about the passing game. I might even land on Rodgers as a qb if the price is right. 

TE- Such an important position each week since you only get one. You have to hit here, so I typically do spend up for my Kittle, Ertz, Kelce type tight ends on most of these slates. 

Hayden Hurst- The new Austin Hooper comes discounted in a lethal offense. The Falcons traded a second round pick to acquire Hurst so I fully expect them to use their new toy. This goes against my pay up mentality here, but It’s hard not to love this one and saving money to do it. 

Austin Hooper- The Browns got Hooper to Cleveland by pitching him as Bakers new Mark Andrews from his college days at Oklahoma. Andrews led the Sooners in receptions with Baker at the helm and that’s a massive role if they use him like that. The Browns also have a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski, who loves the tight end position more than most coaches out there. With Cleveland being under dogs to the Ravens this week I wouldn’t be surprised to see them attack the middle of the field that’s now lacking Earl Thomas with their new shiny tight end. 

George Kittle- If you’re not going cheap then you have to go elite with Kittle in this matchup against the leagues worst team guarding the tight end position. 

Team Defense- I hate this position, it’s honestly a crap shoot for who’s going to return a punt for a touchdown or create a pick 6. I’ll give you my favorites without much to say here but I’m a firm believer in choosing my defense last and hoping I have enough money to get a good one rather than a shot in the dark... at the same time I’ll gladly take a shot in the dark before I sacrifice a good player. 

Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagle, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots,