NFL Preview Week 10
Notes
Weather isn’t typically a factor on football but we watched a crazy wind game in Cleveland just two weeks ago when the Raiders came to town. The weather this week is actually identical. The winds even look worse at times so this is definitely a game to avoid receivers and quarterbacks.
Green Bay and Pittsburgh aren’t as bad but they are still seeing upwards of 30mph winds and that’s never good for passing attacks. Beware.
Top Plays
Mike Davis- This is a free square and no need to get cute. With Christian McCaffrey returning last week they dropped Mike Davis to the minimum salary on DK. Surprisingly, CMC is ruled out this week leaving Mike Davis to a full work load against Tampa Bay. This is actually a terrible matchup for running backs as Tampa is very stout up front, but I still don’t care. The work load is enough to plug in anyone at minimum salary, but the pass catching ability of Davis out of the backfield and how much the Panthers use the running back from the backfield makes this the easiest play of the day. Let other people get cute and fade this situation, I’m really hoping people overthink this because of the matchup and ownership. Won’t be me!
Michael Thomas- The Niners secondary is still beat up and you’ve got to love the price for Thomas. You’re getting a guy who just last year was priced as high as Devante Adam’s is today. He’s a high volume pass catcher in a great matchup and that makes him an automatic plug in for me. This Saints offense is finally healthy and Thomas is arguably the biggest piece in the entire offense. He’s only played two games this season and both were against the Buccaneers who a lot will argue is the best defense in football this year. Last week he still managed to catch 5 of 6 targets for 51 yards aside from the fact they won in blowout fashion. Last year Thomas averaged 11.6 targets a game with an astonishing 80.5% catch rate. He was targeted 185 times in 2019 and that volume is fully expected to return in 2020, definitely in a matchup like this against a beat up San Francisco team.
I want to mention a few things before we dive into positions. Football isn’t as big on stacking as it is in baseball, but it’s still a very good idea to use correlations in your builds. Very rarely do I not pair my QB with one of his Wide Receivers. If Drew Brees is going to throw 5 touchdowns tomorrow then it’s almost pointless to have him without Michael Thomas who will likely catch some of them, right? Same goes with running backs and team defenses. They correlate well because Nick Chubb could see extra carries with a lead. When that happens it keeps the Browns offense on the field and the opposing offense off of it. At the same time it forces the other teams offense to become one dimensional and throw the ball every play. This opens up opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions which gives your defense points. Always think of matchups, but never forget game scripts and the correlations that will likely occur because of those matchups.
Favorite stacks-
Packers
Chargers
Saints
QB- This is often the hardest position to get right but I take a different approach here. Most people tend to look at this position first because it’s at the top of the roster, I do the opposite. I find the receivers I’m in love with and I see what I can fit at this position. I basically take the same approach as season long leagues where I refuse to draft a QB early. In my season long league I’ve went back to back years drafting Patrick Mahomes, then Lamar Jackson, both with my very last pick of the draft. I honestly carry this approach with correlation to my receivers in mind when I build lineups in daily fantasy.
Justin Herbert- Continues to be dominant week in week out. This Miami defense is much improved but still struggles with the pass more than the run. This is a great spot for the rookie and he will be a contrarian play.
Kyler Murray- He’s been the best fantasy QB so far and the rushing yards and touchdowns have a lot to do with it. Buffalo is by no means a defense to fade a quarterback of his magnitude and he could go overlooked as well. Kyler is my favorite option if you can afford him.
Fade— Josh Allen— this might be stupid but after last weeks display I think Josh Allen is BY FAR the highest owned QB of week 10. Arizona’s defense is not good but it’s still on a different planet that the Seahawks that’s Allen tore apart last week. His price tag and an average matchup make him appealing but I’m going to fade the recency bias and hope for a dud that’s honestly just as likely as a repeat of last weeks performance.
RB-
Mike Davis- read above
Nick Chubb- Winds are near 60mph gusts in Cleveland and they get back their shiny toy that his Nick Chubb. This has to be a running game for the Browns and Chubb is a top 3 back in all of football.
Aaron Jones- Green Bay has some equally shitty weather this Sunday. With that I see myself attacking the run game in this one as well. I expect them to pound the rock now that Jones is healthy again.
Antonio Gibson- I believe this is the sneaky play. You’ve got the free square in Mike Davis, you’ve got a popular Duke Johnson and Gio Bernard who are in decent spots, specifically for volume. Pay a couple hundred more and get Gibson in what’s the best matchup of all 3 of them? At no ownership? Love it.
Other plays- Duke Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Troymaine Pope, DJ Dallas
WR- Like season long leagues, wide receiver is just deeper with opportunity than any other position so I typically don’t spend up like crazy here. At the same time, some matchups just can’t be ignored.
Michael Thomas- See above
Keenan Allen- Talk about target share and receptions and you’ve got to bring up Keenan Allen. He should be shadowed by Nick Needham who’s solid but by no means a corner you fade in this matchup. I think a lot of people stay away from the Chargers because of Miami’s impressive defense the past two weeks which has scored 3 defensive touchdowns in that time. The Cardinals still hung 30+ points though and by no means should you be worried by touchdowns being scored. I love Allen and the Chargers in what should be a close and high scoring game that goes overlooked.
DeVante Parker- He’s only $5,000 on DK. There’s no Preston Williams and he caught a touchdown from Tua in his first game, then the next week saw 7 targets as a team high. Now take away an option for Tua and I could see Parker having the highest upside on this entire slate. He’s one of those lock players for me this week.
Other options- DK Metcalf, Steelers receiver. I don’t know which one but either JuJu or Dionte Johnson is going to have a game this week against the Bengals.
TE- Such an important position each week since you only get one. You have to hit here, so I typically do spend up for my Kittle, Ertz, Kelce type tight ends on most of these slates.
Darren Waller- To be honest, I’m sick of going cheap here and watching Travis Kelce score 30 points each week. No Kelce on this slate, but I love Waller against Denver. I don’t necessarily love the matchup but I love the volume Waller gets. He leads all tight ends in football in team target percentage amd Denver has not looked as stout as they have always seemed. I don’t think he breaks your bank either.
Dallas Goedert- This is the chalk this week and rightfully so. Still no Ertz for Philadelphia and even with Ertz on the field it looked like DG was Carson Wentz go to target. He’s also very affordable so you’ve gotta like that amd the matchup with the Giants. Honestly it’s a tie befeeen him and Waller today but I’m only playing these two.
Other options- Noah Fant
Team Defense- I hate this position, it’s honestly a crap shoot for who’s going to return a punt for a touchdown or create a pick 6. I’ll give you my favorites without much to say here but I’m a firm believer in choosing my defense last and hoping I have enough money to get a good one rather than a shot in the dark... at the same time I’ll gladly take a shot in the dark before I sacrifice a good player.
Packers
Browns
Raiders
