NFL Preview Week 13

Top Plays

Myles Gaskin- He’s back from the IR and the only running back on this team. I find it hard to believe that Patrick Laird gets much run. I expect Gaskins to be back in a featured role here. 

AJ Brown- I expect Derrick Henry to be the popular choice in this game but I like the passing attack. We all know Derrick Henry is a different man late in the season but his price reflects that at $9,200. I can’t pay that price for someone who doesn’t catch the ball in a PPR format. Let’s say he runs all over them for 120 yards but doesn’t score. 15 points with the bonus isn’t nearly enough to pay off that price tag. AJ Brown played the Browns and went for 100 yards against them last season, this was with the Browns best DB in Denzel Ward being on the field. The Browns are without Ward and I’m all over attacking the Browns through the air as a pivot from everyone else with an overpriced Henry. 

I want to mention a few things before we dive into positions. Football isn’t as big on stacking as it is in baseball, but it’s still a very good idea to use correlations in your builds. Very rarely do I not pair my QB with one of his Wide Receivers. If Drew Brees is going to throw 5 touchdowns tomorrow then it’s almost pointless to have him without Michael Thomas who will likely catch some of them, right? Same goes with running backs and team defenses. They correlate well because Nick Chubb could see extra carries with a lead. When that happens it keeps the Browns offense on the field and the opposing offense off of it. At the same time it forces the other teams offense to become one dimensional and throw the ball every play. This opens up opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions which gives your defense points. Always think of matchups, but never forget game scripts and the correlations that will likely occur because of those matchups. 

Favorite stacks-

Browns/ Titans 

Giants/ Seahawks

Green Bay

QB- This is often the hardest position to get right but I take a different approach here. Most people tend to look at this position first because it’s at the top of the roster, I do the opposite. I find the receivers I’m in love with and I see what I can fit at this position. I basically take the same approach as season long leagues where I refuse to draft a QB early. In my season long league I’ve went back to back years drafting Patrick Mahomes, then Lamar Jackson, both with my very last pick of the draft. I honestly carry this approach with correlation to my receivers in mind when I build lineups in daily fantasy.

This position today is a little wide open. None of them really stick out that much to me. I’ll just list my favorites in order. 

Aaron Rodgers

Russell Wilson

Ryan Tannehill

Phillip Rivers

Taysom Hill

I’m also not opposed to cheap flyers in this one. I really think the Titans/ Browns game is a shoot out so Baker Mayfield makes sense. I’m really not opposed to a shot on Colt McCoy against Seattle’s soft secondary either. 

RB- 

Myles Gaskin- See above

Dalvin Cook- Also obvious, but if you’re paying up at running back it needs to be here. Cook had a dud last week and maybe that keeps some people off of him. Matchup with Jacksonville is elite for running backs. Last week Nick Chubb had 170 all purpose yards and Cook is a rare player who gets the most usage of any running back in the league. Compare that to Chubb who splits a lot of backfield work with Kareem Hunt and you see the upside to playing Cook this week. 

Chris Carson- If Carlos Hyde is ruled out then Carson becomes one of my top overall plays. He’s still in a great spot against the Giants and being a heavy favorite at home against a bad team so I could land here often. I will add that he didn’t get a full work load in his first game back last week. If Hyde is out they won’t have much more of a choice, with Hyde it’s definitely more of a tournament risk. 

Devontae Booker- This is obvious when the Raiders play the Jets and they are without Josh Jacob’s. This will be one of those plays thats 90% owned so I’m really not opposed to fading it at the same time.

Nyheim Hines- Houston’s run defense is atrocious. He’s the most appealing back from the crowded Indy backfield with pass catching upside. 

WR- Like season long leagues, wide receiver is just deeper with opportunity than any other position so I typically don’t spend up like crazy here. At the same time, some matchups just can’t be ignored.

AJ Brown- See above

Julio Jones- He’s questionable and looks like he’s on the wrong side of it but if he plays I love him. Atlanta is at home against a Saints team still relying on Taysom Hill. I’m sure they will keep it close and I don’t mind the Atlanta offensive line against this pass rush of the Saints. 

DeVante Adams- He’s the clear cut WR1 this week against Philly. He’s my favorite play at receiver but it’s nothing easy this week to get him and Dalvin Cook together. Philly is bad and this could be one of those blow up spots for Adam’s.

Sterling Shepherd- He’s had at least 6 RECEPTIONS in each full game he’s played. Seattle has somewhat improved their pass rush but their secondary is still one of the worst in all of football. If you’re playing Carson then I think it’s a great way to counter that with the Giants passing attack. I’ll also mention that Seattle seems to always find a way to let games stay closer than they should be. ***** Daniel Jones not at quarterback makes this wayyyyy riskier. I still like him but having faith in Colt McCoy is never good. FYI I wrote this knowing Colt would be starting, just a disclaimer***

Raiders receivers- I’m actually leaning towards Henry Ruggs with his big play ability against the leagues team that gives up the most big plays. Either way I think popularity going towards the Raiders running game leaves the passing attack untouched. We watched Patrick Mahomes and company go off for fantasy points against this team through the air and the Raiders missing their rb1 could lead to more action for everyone in the passing game.

Donovan People Jones- This is a shot in the dark but one I love. The Browns only have 3 active receivers this week. Landry, Higgins, Jones. Jones is minimum salary but should be on the field plenty in this game to pay off at this salary. 

TE- Such an important position each week since you only get one. You have to hit here, so I typically do spend up for my Kittle, Ertz, Kelce type tight ends on most of these slates. 

Anthony Firkser- The chalky choice but he’s $2,500 on DK and Jonnu Smith has already been ruled out for the Titans who like to use their tight ends. Cleveland has also been a great tight end matchup for several years now and not much has changed. 

Darren Waller- If you’re not going cheap here then I don’t see how you can’t pay up. Waller let a lot of people down in a great matchup last week but he’s still the best tight end you could play by a mile and in another great matchup. 

Team Defense- I hate this position, it’s honestly a crap shoot for who’s going to return a punt for a touchdown or create a pick 6. I’ll give you my favorites without much to say here but I’m a firm believer in choosing my defense last and hoping I have enough money to get a good one rather than a shot in the dark... at the same time I’ll gladly take a shot in the dark before I sacrifice a good player. 

Miami Dolphins

Atlanta Falcons