MLB Breakdown: Opening Day 2021
By: Ethan Tabor
So excited to have DFS baseball back in our lives. This article is made before lineups were released. Typically we know lineups well before we post the article but we wanted to get a head start for opening day. If you have any questions just tweet us @Money_LineDFS. Keep an eye on lineups and where the players are being rostered, be aware of platoon guys that will likely be pinch hit for later in the game, and ALWAYS be aware of weather and the effects it has on baseball. I use Rotogrinders and Kevin Roth for his weather reports. Stay up to speed and use knowledge of weather to your advantage. Let’s dive in!
Pitchers
Pitching can be odd on sites like Fanduel in the early season. That 4 points for the quality start can be hard to come by as teams want to make sure their Ace pitchers are fully stretched before pushing them to the limit. Something to definitely keep in mind when we are considering who to roster. My choices here in the early season tend to be very safe picks.
Shane Bieber- 30 degree temperatures in what’s a pretty pitcher friendly park, all around bad environment for hitting, now plug in Shane Bieber?.... Did I mention he’s playing the Tigers? Against this projected lineup for the Tigers they have seen 74 at bats against The reigning AL Cy Young. They have 1 combined homerun and combined for just 5 runs batted in. Bieber has also struck this lineup out 27 times in those 74 at bats. He opened last season with an Indians record 14 K’s on opening day. When it comes to safe options I don’t think you can find a better option.
Max Scherzer- I love Max for a few reasons. 1) The Nationals have never limited a pitch count on their ace. Scherzer is that guy with 120 pitches in the 7th that somehow comes out for the 8th. I feel good with his pitch count being long enough to get a quality start on fanduel and the strikeouts that this Mets team gives up makes for great upside. 2) The Mets. I love the hype that this team has right now, it just seems storybook for the Nationals (World Series champs in 2019), who improved their lineup dramatically this offseason with additions of Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber and are getting NO hype or recognition for it... to come in and roll the Mets in this opening series. Michael Conforto has a tradition of getting to Max with a 1.125 OPS, but the rest of this team sits at .667 or lower. Sure, I could be wrong, but I feel good about it and it all starts with Mad Max Scherzer. *** This game may not be on your slate depending on where or what you’re playing but I loved it and had to mention***
Yu Darvish- We picked on the Tigers with Bieber so it’s only right we pick on the Diamondbacks. This team just isn’t good and they did next to nothing this off-season to improve their roster. Darvish is making his debut with the Padres as the home opener starter. He will find out quickly that his new home at Petco Park is far more friendly to pitchers than his old home at Wrigley in Chicago. This is a guy who’s K per 9 has exceeded 11 for 7 of his 10 Major League years. 4 of those being consecutive leading up to now. Last year we saw increased movement on his breaking ball and a career best 2.01 ERA. He’s been a little hit or miss this spring but some real flashes of dominance throughout. My main concern is that he hasn’t gone longer than 3 innings so I would be shocked to see him get more than 5 and that requires a dominant outing to get there. I think he’s safe for the win and 6-8 strikeouts against a bad baseball team that should struggle with his stuff, but this is the same worried story for a lot of guys on opening day so how worried should we really be?
Jack Flaherty- This is as cheap as I’m going today, but I feel like a lot of people have forgotten just how dominate Flaherty was in 2019. Dealing with an injury during the crazy 2020 season had to be tough for a starting pitcher. The good news is that his velocity, spin rate, and K rate still almost matched his 2019 numbers in his limited 2020 starts. I expect a rebound year from him. This matchup with the Reds isn’t a bad one at all since the damage bats of Castellanos and Suarez are both right handed batters. I don’t love pitching people at Cincinnati’s park but the weather is favorable when it’s 30 degrees regardless of the ball park. If you’re going cheap you’re all over Jack.
Other options- Brad Kellar
Top Stacks
Yankees
Dodgers
Red Sox** Padres** Red Sox postponed
Royals
**Stacking a team is crucial in baseball DFS. I try to have at least one team maxed out in my lineup. On Fanduel you can play 4 hitters and a pitcher from the same team so I play 4 batters from the same team 98% of the time. Draftkings allows 5 so I go with 5 98% of the time. You’re looking for the best matchup but who from that matchup can you find that will be under owned? What matchups in general will go over looked?
-The Dodgers will be popular but they are in Coors field and have the best offense in baseball. Early season like this with bad weather for hitters will undoubtedly press people to get the Dodgers bats in their lineup. It’s not a bad idea at all and I have the Dodgers actually tied with the Yankees but giving Yankees the edge for lower ownership.
-Yankees and Red Sox will likely be an after thought today. With everyone spending up at pitcher and with everyone wanting a piece of the Dodgers it’s going to be impossible to roster a top tier pitcher with the Dodgers and one of these teams. Naturally, I want more exposure here than I do to the Dodgers because I like the matchups just as much and I don’t see the ownership being popular. For the Yankees, Ryu over performed last year and I’m not afraid to play this stacked offense against a mediocre left handed pitcher. Aaron Judge is going to be the first player in my lineup and a $2,200 Jay Bruce who’s likely going to be in the middle of this lineup is next up to save me some salary. For the Red Sox I’m not really crazy about one specific player as I am with Judge on the Yankees. Xander Bogaerts probably sticks out as my favorite but I’m ok with anyone once I see the lineup.
Royals- This team is MUCH improved from last year, but their prices don’t really reflect that. I expect them to be a little on the popular side because of these prices and because people will be able to afford them with the Dodgers and a solid pitcher. Kyle Gibson is on the mound for Texas and he’s probably the worst pitcher getting an opening day start so this stack makes sense and it’s a bargain to fit everything else you like.
Other options- The Padres just missed my list. Madison Baumgardner proved one of two things last year, pitching in San Francisco is significantly easier than most ball parks, or he’s old and washed up. The lefty had serious issues with giving up power to right handed bats. That’s a problem when you face Tatis, Machado, and the Padres. I’m more so obsessed with Fernando Tatis Jr. today. Even if I don’t stack the Padres I’m playing him.
Position Bats
C/1B
Salvador Perez
Cody Bellinger
Carlos Santana
2B
Ian Happ
Jake Cronenworth/ Jurickson Profar
Whit Merrifield (batted .450 this spring)
3B
Jose Ramirez
Manny Machado
Jonathon India (Rookie, but he’s minimum price and had a great spring. I’m not prioritizing him at all but I think he’s a great value as the Reds starting second baseman)
SS
Fernando Tatis Jr. (Major gap between him and rest of this SS field)
Gleyber Torres
Jorge Polanco
OF
Aaron Judge
Mookie Betts
Tommy Pham
Joc Pederson (5 HR and 2.071 OPS this spring. Batters get hot and he clearly is)
Kike Hernandez
Will Myers
Jay Bruce
Dong of the Day
Aaron Judge
